Smart Like Streetcar

My niece, Elizabeth, married her sweetheart Andrew over the Labour Day weekend. My niece, Adriane, is farthest to the right.

We had a really enjoyable night.

Apparently, I was a little hasty. Our domain registrar has a grace period, so we’ll maintain control over the domains for the next 12 days, and no one can purchase them out from under us. That gives me time to pay the bill.

A dozen days and counting!

I’m not sure if the domain registry will continue to point to my web host after tomorrow, so Tempest and SLS may disappear tomorrow, or they may not. In any event, please but keep your blogrolls active, for we might be back.

Thanks for the kind wishes and comments!!

I’m sorry for such short notice, but after today, Smart Like Streetcar will be no more.

In a nutshell, we can’t afford to renew the domain names for SLS and Tempest in a Teapot and so, after today, they will lapse. And this link will fail. As will our email addresses.

I can’t begin to tell you how much it has meant to us to find online friends and such a supportive community for writers.

We may be back. Perhaps on one of the free services, or perhaps with new domain names. And, truth to tell, I have plans for a new environmental site that I hope to bring online in September.

Thank you for reading, and commenting. You’ve touched my heart, and you will be missed.

The video speaks for itself. We can’t let this man win.

The United Kingdom should start taking steps to prepare for dangerous climate change of perhaps 4° Celsius or more, according to one of the country’s chief scientific advisors. The European Union has committed to limiting global emissions so that temperatures do not rise by more than 2°C, but Dr. Bob Watson, Chief Advisor to the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, believes this ambitious target will be very difficult to reach given the current level of global indifference in many developing countries. (I think he means Canada and the US). As a result, he’s telling government leaders they must prepared for the worst.

According to the UK government’s 2006 Stern Review, between seven million and 300 million more people would be affected by coastal flooding each year, there would be a 30-50 percent reduction in water availability in Southern Africa, agricultural yields in the Mediterranean would decline 15 to 35 percent, and 20 to 50 percent of African animal and plant species would face extinction. The UK would see rising sea levels, inland flooding, drier summers, and heavier rain storms.

And in case you haven’t been paying attention, Lord Stern now thinks that he got it wrong, that he didn’t go nearly far enough with the doom and gloom.

In related environmental news, a sudden and unexpected melting in the high Arctic means that 2008 might be even worse than last year’s record ice loss. More than one million square kilometers disappeared in 2007. Based on recent events, Professor Wieslaw Maslowski of the socialist and alarmist global warming division at the Naval Postgraduate School says that the computer models he is running indicate that the Arctic could be ice free during the summer months by 2013 - with serious consequences for the planet, as the tundra releases millions of tons of methane.*

If you’re interested in following the destruction in the Arctic, have a look at the Arctic Sea Ice New and Analysis site.

Photo Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center, W. O. Field, B. F. Molnia

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* Methane is also a greenhouse gas, but with 23 times the potency of CO2.

In my recent forays into enemy territory, I’ve realized that The Anti-Global Warming Group seems to be divided into two factions. Those who look out the window on blustery, cold day and see absolutely no evidence of global warming (and so all scientists are liars and can’t be trusted)*, and those who see signs of global warming in their personal lives, and that gives them pause. But they keep hearing from friends and conservative web sites that recent warming is just natural climate cycle, or the result of volcanoes, water vapor, or sunspots. (So humanity is off the hook).

Here’s the argument that details how we know that humanity is solely responsible for the dramatic increase of carbon dioxide — the main greenhouse gas — in our atmosphere. I recently presented this argument on a Conservative blog, breaking each fact down in bite sized chunks, trying to explain the science to nonscientists.**

The proof that humanity is causing global warming

Can I assume that at least some Conservatives here do see signs that the planet is warming, but think there’s no proof that humanity is causing the global warming? I’m will also assume that the others simply have no faith in science or empirical results, so they can stop reading now.

We are pouring carbon dioxide into the air. It’s also true that many natural processes do the same thing, when trees die, for example, and when volcanoes erupt.

Carbon dioxide, and a handful of other gases, are considered greenhouse gases. As we increase their concentration, we’re essentially wrapping the planet in a warm blanket. The more CO2, the thicker the blanket.

The CO2 measured in the atmosphere is currently at about 390 parts per million (ppm), an increase of 40 percent since the Industrial Revolution. The concentration of all greenhouse gases stands at 430 ppm. Many climate scientists agree that 450 ppm will be a tipping point that will lead to runaway climate change within a generation.

Since the Industrial Revolution, humanity has poured more than 500 billion metric tons into the atmosphere, and never more so than today. We currently throw 8.38 gigatons (8.38 billion tons) into the atmosphere every year.

Before the Industrial Revolution, the amount of CO2 held by the atmosphere had been decreasing for millennia. We know that because we can look at things like tree rings, and ice cores, and many other natural processes that absorb CO2. They tell a story.

With me so far?

In the 1850s, the start of the Industrial Revolution, a curious thing happens; the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere stop decreasing. Over the next couple of decades, the millennia-long trend of declining CO2 concentrations is replaced by a trend of increasing CO2 concentrations. In the last 50 years, the rate of increase has been alarming.

The CO2 in the atmosphere was increasing by 1.00 ppm in the 1960s. By 1.5 ppm in the 1990s. By 2.1 ppm since 2000. In 2007, it appears to have spiked again.

The earth naturally absorbs CO2 through natural processes, but that absorption ability is now overwhelmed. Our Earth and the people on it are emitting CO2 much too fast for trees and oceans to sequester it. (Otherwise, why would the CO2 concentrations have risen since the Industrial Revolution?)

Carbon is comprised of three isotopes. Sorry for the brief science lesson about neutrons, protons and electrons; but in a nutshell, carbon dioxide occurs naturally as C-12, C-13, C14, based on the number of neutrons in the carbon atom. In all of nature, a ton of carbon here will have the same chemical makeup as a ton of carbon there; both tons will have the same number of C-12, C13, and C-14.

For most of recorded history, going back 450,000 years or more (Hansen reported on this recently), scientists can measure the composition of carbon dioxide absorbed by plants, ice, oceans, and so on. That’s why they know that CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere were decreasing for centuries before the Industrial Revolution, and increasing after.

For virtually of recorded history, the chemical signature of carbon dioxide molecules absorbed by natural factors has always been the exact same, with the same percentages of Carbon-12, C-13, and C14. (By the by, that’s why scientists can do radioactive dating, determining that this bone is one million years old - because C-14 is radioactive, and it decays overtime at a measurable rate.

So, the question now becomes… Why are the world’s most notable climate scientists certain that humanity is causing global warming?

The Key Point: When you burn carbon (coal, oil, natural gas), you change the ratio of CO2 molecules (in terms of C-12, C-13, C-14) in the resulting gas. CO2 released when a tree dies is chemically — and measurably — different from CO2 released by burning coal.

So, if the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing, and humanity is the cause, we should be able to make accurate measurements, as the carbon dioxide released naturally looks different chemically than the CO2 that comes from manmade activities. And that’s exactly what is happening. In the last 150 years, the carbon dioxide absorbed by trees and arctic ice looks different than CO2 absorbed at any time in recorded history.

Humanity is causing the increase in atmospheric CO2; humanity is causing global warming.

This, my friends, is a scientific fact.

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* At this one site, where I got into debate with some New Brunswick Conservatives (who support Prime Minister Stephen Harper even though he is continually giving the shaft to Atlantic Canada), the blog maven replaced a lovely garden photo with a series of photos show that the High Arctic was still covered with ice in April, proof positive that global warming is a sham. And just this week, there was this Arctic story, as the photo at the top shows.

** My humans are causing global warming garnered a series of angry rebuttals, including this one:

Why are your experts better than our experts Richard.Nowhere in the world is there proof of global warming.Why can you not see that.As far as exxon and the big oil companies muddying the water of this debate?never heard of an instance of there interference here on the web or in the papers.Canadians are the ones muddying the waters.We are not going to be suckers to your stupid,send the money to China scam.Dion is worse than a snake oil salesman because he is supposed to be a leader not a scam artist.And anyone believing in some plan that doesnt even mention the environment is in need of high prescription drugs.Here is a simple example of how stupid the plan is…Factory 1 shuts down its generators and starts a silk factory ,no pollution coming from this plant now so it gets to sell carbon credits to the plant #2 next door that is now working double time to fill the orders from plant # 1.Plant #2 now needs to add another coal fired furnace to keep up with the demand and now is spewing more carbon into the air.But no problem believers, plant #1 sells them more carbon credits and everyone is happy .Do you see where i am going with this??No carbon has been cleaned up and the air is probably worse than before carbon trading.So basically its a scam and would be worse if we sent the money to China or India,because then we would bankrupt our country and polute it at the same …Just dont poison the water and use paper bags and most of all use common sense.I am sure even Liberals can do this if they stop the hatred long enough to see the truth.THERE IS NO GLOBAL WARMING..GET OVER IT..

Our neighboring province, Prince Edward Island, is the Land of Green Gables, a small, almost-perfect island immortalized forever in the works of Lucy Maud Montgomery. I have never read the books, but I have seen the television series by Sullivan Entertainment, and feel a certain fondness for Anne Shirley that I can’t quite explain.

Prince Edward Island is celebrating this year, as it’s the 100th anniversary of the publication of Anne of Green Gables.

A number of years ago, I wrote short literary essays on iconic places in Canada for Endless Vacation, at the time, the world’s largest travel magazine. This is the essay that I wrote about PEI, distilled from my memories of a 1987 visit.

Green Gables House, Prince Edward Island National Park

In a gentle nation, it’s fitting that a humble farmhouse in Cavendish — a hamlet of 94 people — inspires pilgrimages.

Green Gables is a modest dwelling treasured throughout much of the world, thanks to author Lucy Maud Montgomery’s stories. The Prince Edward Island native fashioned her intimate knowledge of this loving home, owned by elderly cousins, into the fictional setting for Anne of Green Gables and several popular sequels. A century later, Anne — an articulate, imaginative, spontaneous, red-headed orphan — still impresses children with her honesty and enthusiasm.

Wisely, Green Gables is nestled within the confines of Prince Edward Island National Park, so little has changed in the Victorian home immortalized by Montgomery. “Kindred spirits” can still amble down Lover’s Lane, or hazard a journey through the Haunted Woods.

My mother has always cherished Green Gables, remembering Anne’s infectious good humor as the perfect antidote for the realities of the Great Depression. Most Japanese share her passion. For Kumiko Azetsu — a sophisticated Japanese friend researching her PhD thesis at Dalhousie University — our Cavendish trip fulfilled a childhood dream. She spent an hour memorizing the house, every detail lovingly preserved, another hour absorbing the ambience.**

Like many tourist destinations, the island’s north shore has unwanted development. But the elongated 40-kilometre National Park is pristine, boasting lovely white sand beaches, red sandstone cliffs, secluded salt marshes, and thick woodland for the less bookish among us. In 1534, the natural beauty inspired French explorer Jacques Cartier to call the island “the fairest land ’tis possible to see.”

On a warm spring morning, sauntering among red sand dunes, it’s hard to disagree. But my island memories always begin and end with Green Gables. Stripped of symbolism, it’s a simple farmhouse, mildly diverting. But add literary emotion and meaning, and Green Gables becomes a small, enchanting cathedral honoring a fictional girl whose sweet disposition and indomitable spirit still resonate today.

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* The photo is swiped from Tourism PEI. It’s a Barrett & McKay photo, featuring Jenna MacMillan as Anne.

**This visit to Green Gables with my friend, Tom Ward and his then-girlfriend Kumiko Azetsu garner a few paragraphs in this book, Traveling the Trans-Canada by Princeton English professor William Howrath. He was visiting the National Historic Site when we met him, and he was enchanted by Kumiko, and the reason she wanted to visit. He describes Tom and I as being anything but literary chaps.

Some other essays I wrote for this series, from my archives: Cape Breton Highlands, Northern Lights, or Aurora Borealis, Bay of Fundy, Port Royal.